Spectometer Plateau Leap Alert: Jabari Blash

Jabari Blash is fun.  Never any doubt about that.

Of course, just saying “Jabari Blash” is fun.

And when you have a slugger named “Blash” who routinely deposits balls in the seats, then the “Blash Splash” tag is a natural.  And that’s fun too.

But is Jabari Blash more than just fun to follow?  Is he a legit prospect?

Prior to 2013, I have said “not really.”  But now … “maybe.”

Absolutely, certainly … maybe!

First off, Blash is the epitome of the dreaded “raw, toolsy” prospect.  I tend to be biased against the “raw, toolsy” prospects.  Not per se but only the ones that quite evidently lack “plate skills.”

Alex Liddi was always a raw, toolsy prospect who lacked plate skills.  Michael Saunders was raw and toolsy, but didn’t lack plate skills.  Get the difference?

Can one succeed long-term in the majors without “plate skills”?  Yes … but …

You have GOT to be a slugger.  Moreover, you have got to be a “slugger who walks.”

Spectometer Mid-Season Plateau Leap Alert: Austin Wilson

Usually, the "plateau leap" is from one season to the next, but sometimes, as in the case of Austin Wilson, we can find a definite "leap" in the middle of the year.

Wilson was the Mariners' second-round pick, but he was a guy that many expected would go higher.  Was he a bargain at that spot?

It is certainly starting to look like it.

Perhaps it will help in this case to offer a bit of the background story:

• There is a "stigma" attached to hitters from Stanford.
• The way hitting is taught at Stanford is said to diminish a player's ability to have a successful pro career.
• Wilson is reportedly a super-genius (with a "Megatron" physique to boot) and jumped at the Stanford baseball scholarship despite the risk (turning down the chance at big money coming out of high school).

So it is perhaps understandable that Wilson's transition to wood bats and a "non-Stanford" hitting approach might take a bit longer than, say, his fellow 2013 draftee D.J. Peterson, who just ripped right into pro pitching like a toddler opening Christmas presents.

Nevertheless, at the end the day on July 17, I'm not sure anyone expected Wilson's line to be:

AFL & Winter Update for 10/17

More news from Peoria and nearby Arizona communities.

October 14 -- Box

Although I envision Kyle Hunter in the majors, should he get there, as a Charlie Furbush-type LH middle-relief ace, he got the start on Monday.  But, in the AFL, the starters don't tend to go deep into games anyway, so it's not that big of a thing.

His line: 3.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

At the other end of the game, was Dominic Leone, who went the final 1.1 IP and allowed no baserunners (and, therefore, no runs) and struck out two.

Among hitters, Stefen Romero was back in LF and went 1-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts.  Patrick Kivlehan was a third and went 1-for-3.


October 15 -- Box

Not all the AFL stadiums have pitch f/x data, but Peoria does, so we can get a read on Carson Smith.  If you've been follow along, you know Smith is our top pick as an impact bullpen guy -- at the Pryor/Capps potential level.

Meet the Goon Squad

Posted online by Chance Ruffin. No infringement intended.

Doc liked our mini-profile of Stephen Kohlscheen enough to devote a post of his own on it, but we feel compelled to point out the secret lurking below the surface.

Even post-"leap," Kolhscheen is only about the 4th or 5th best prospect from the Jackson bullpen.

 Let's check our work here.

A guy puts up a 2.30 ERA and 11.5 K/9 and isn't even one of the top three guys in his own bullpen?

Well, maybe so.

Consider:

Carson Smith (#31 in the picture): 1.80 ERA | 1.76 FIP | 1.00 WHIP | 3.1 BB/9 | 12.8 K/9
Dominic Leone (not in the picture): 2.25 ERA | 2.88 FIP | 1.05 WHIP | 2.5 BB/9 | 9.0 K/9
Kyle Hunter (not in the picture): 1.80 ERA | 3.33 FIP |  1.13 WHIP | 2.6 BB/9 | 7.1 K/9
Tyler Burgoon (#55 in the picture): 4.02 ERA | 3.49 FIP | 1.36 WHIP | 4.2 BB/9 | 11.4 K/9
Forrest Snow (#25 in the picture): 2.96 ERA | 3.16 FIP | 1.09 WHIP | 3.1 BB/9 | 9.2 K/9
Nick Hill (not in the picture) vs. LH hitters only: 2.84 FIP |  1.00 WHIP | 3.3 BB/9 | 9.8 K/9


And that's not even listing Jonathan Arias and his 10.4 K/9 (but 4.66 FIP) or Andrew Kittredge and his 11.2 K/9 at Jackson (which cratered when he went to Tacoma).

Spectometer Plateau Leap Alert: Stephen Kohlscheen & David Colvin

Another thing the Mariners seem to like to do is snap up pitchers in late rounds in whom they see some upside.

In these fishing expeditions, they seem to favor tall, right-handed guys from college or junior college programs with strikeout potential.

Interestingly, given that the new collective bargaining agreement eliminated the 41st to 50th rounds, they seemed to have a pretty strong track record in that lower part of the draft.

Witnesseth:

.	2010 36th round	Forest Snow	6-foot-6, 220	8.4 K/9
.	2010 45th round	Stephen Kohlscheen	6-foot-6, 223	10.1 K/9
.	2010 50th round	David Holman	6-foot-6, 220	5.4 K/9
.	2011 40th round	Trevor Miller	6-foot-3, 190	6.7 K/9
.	2011 44th round	Joshua Corrales	6-foot-2, 205	8.7 K/9
.	2011 47th round	Brandon Plotz	6-foot-3, 205	10.0 K/9

Out of that crop, Snow briefly looked like the emerging star, but he was pushed up the ladder too quickly and faded fast before regrouping considerably in 2013 out of the bullpen.  Some of the others didn't pitch in 2013 and may have been released or quit.  

AFL and Winter update for 10/14

Time for an update on the Arizona Fall League Peoria Javelinas (those are javelinas pictured), and a couple of other random winter items.

 I assume that the scores don't matter.


October 8 -- Box

It happens that I'd already designated Kyle Hunter as a "plateau leap" when he was given the chance to replace Danny Hultzen in the AFL, but I hadn't written up the post yet (which is here).  But he made me look good in his first outing:  2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.

Stefen Romero played LF and went 1-for-3 and Patrick Kivlehan was the DH and went 1-for-4.


October 9 -- Box

Chris Taylor was the only Mariners prospect in the game.  He played second base and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Spectometer Plateau Leap Alert: Kyle Hunter

Maybe you liked what Charlie Furbush brought to the table in 2013:  very tough on lefties, but also hard for right-hand hitters to handle.

And maybe you wondered, when Danny Hultzen was shut down, why Kyle Hunter was the guy sent to the Arizona Fall League in his place.

And maybe the two things are related ... because maybe Kyle Hunter is evolving into Furbush II.

Furbush is a bit taller and has more oomph on his fastball, while Hunter is better at avoiding walks, but both have shown the ability to transcend LOOGY-hood with outings that also shut down righties.

We'll start with Hunter's overall line, which is plenty good:

71.1 IP | 1.80 ERA | 3.33 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | 2.6 BB/9 | 7.1 K/9

His numbers are actually weighed down a bit since he gave up two homers in 12.1 IP at High Desert, and, given his track record, it seems fairly unlikely that he would have done that in a different park.  His FIP at Jackson alone was 3.11.