spectometer
Mostly about Seattle Mariners prospects
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Please Read the Plan and Take the Survey!
I have developed a plan for the Spectometer blog, and I am seeking your input to see if the plan will work. So ... please review the plan and respond to the survey. Thank you very much for your consideration.
Off-season plan:
1. Continuation of the rickroll Depth Charts. Part 1 (starters) here. Part 2 (relievers) here.
2. Some Spectometer Time Machine reports. If we had been publishing at the time, what would Spectometer have said about Justin Smoak, Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo or, say, Edgar Martinez?
3. Leader boards for the various Spectometer stats.
4. The Spec66: the Top 40 (ranked), the 26intheMix (unranked), the Watch List (guys who didn't quite make it). Published in reverse order, as they were last year.
In-season plan:
1. Daily Game Action Recaps, as the last two years.
2. News and stat updates as warranted.
3. Periodic feature articles and spotlights.
So that's what's on tap ... if ...
OK, now it's your part. This content will require reader support, and I need your help to determine if that support exists.
I have created a survey, and need as many readers as possible to fill it out honestly. I am hopeful that the technology works. Thank You!
Monday, October 28, 2013
Seattle Mariners Depth Chart: rickroll part 2 (Relief Pitchers)
Here's the full relief pitching rickroll. Introduction is here at SeattleSportsInsider.com.
2014 age | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Thumbnail commentary | ||
Danny Farquhar | 27 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Is he the closer? Well, he faced 89 batters in the 9th inning, and struck out 31 of them, with no HR. So far, so good. | |
Tom Wilhelmsen | 30 | RH | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Turns out he was still hard to hit. ISO and HR/9 were fine. But his walk rate and BABIP both zoomed up simultaneously after mid-June. | ||
Charlie Furbush | 28 | LH | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | We'll take 1.1 WAR (fangraphs) from a lefty middle relief guy. | ||
Lucas Luetge | 27 | LH | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Still has silver bullets vs. LH, but righties OPS almost .900 against him. | ||
Stephen Pryor | 24 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Limited to 7.1 IP by injuries, but they were a very tantalizing 7.1 IP. | |
Carter Capps | 23 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Like a bullpen Brandon Maurer, he just got tattooed (1.8 HR/9). It wasn't entirely bad luck, but we still believe he can figure it out. If not, there are a host of guys in line. | |
Yoervis Medina | 25 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Quite the escape artist. Managed to combine 5.3 BB/9 and 2.91 ERA. One of those numbers will change going forward, we just don't know which. | |
Chance Ruffin | 25 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Clearly, the club likes his potential, but the competition is going to be fierce. All these guys won't fit on the big club all at once. | |
Carson Smith | 24 | RH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Had the best season of any reliever in the organization. 1.80 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; 71 K in 50.0 IP. Some will recall that Jeff Nelson was one of the most valuable players on both the 1995 & 2001 teams. Just sayin'. |
Bobby LaFromboise | 28 | LH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Bad fortune at the MLB level: 2.11 FIP, 5.91 ERA. A decent September callup helped. Has better splits than Luetge and could easily grab his spot. |
Brian Moran | 25 | LH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Of course, Moran might grab it first; he struck out every lefty in sight (48 K in 128 BF). But righties hit him hard at AAA. |
Logan Bawcom | 25 | RH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Solid late-inning guy who would stand out in a system that didn't have Farquhar, Pryor, Capps, Smith, Leone ... |
Dominic Leone | 22 | RH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Yes, we told you about him first. Yes, he throws 95 with a 90 mph cutter. Yes, if he finds consistency he'll be awesome. Yes, he's zooming up everyone else's lists, but he won't have to zoom up ours. |
Stephen Kohlscheen | 25 | RH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Tall righty made a plateau leap in 2013. He and Burgoon could get a look, but have we mentioned that it's going to be crowded? |
Tyler Burgoon | 25 | RH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Eight inches (at least) shorter than Kohlscheen, but in the same boat. A strikeout artist trying to get noticed in a system full of them. |
Kyle Hunter | 25 | LH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Do not be surprised if Hunter leaps over Luetge, LaFromboise and Moran to take a LH pen spot. He has a mix of pitches that hitters from both sides have trouble with. |
Forrest Snow | 25 | RH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Snow has had a roller-coaster career, but settled in nicely on the Goon Squad bullpen with Smith, Burgoon, Kohlscheen and the like. Of course, they're all headed for the same on-ramp at the same time and somebody's not going to make in through. |
Nick Hill | 29 | LH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | If you've been around awhile you know Hill. A West Point grad, he combined his minor-league career with service as a 1st Lt. in the U.S. Army. Then injuries derailed him for two full years. He decided to make one more comeback, and didn't give up a single XBH to a LH hitter. Late-season callup to Tacoma indicates that there's still life in his career. |
David Colvin | 25 | RH | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Colvin should have gotten a "plateau leap" writeup. After a very strong year in the High Desert pen, he could catch up with his peers who were at Jackson. |
Seon Gi Kim | 22 | RH | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Erratic to say the least, but when he's "on" he's really good. |
Grady Wood | 24 | RH | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Clinton was the one place where no one in the bullpen really made a mark, but Wood was the best of the bunch and has upside. |
Jose Valdivia | 22 | RH | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Fully recovered from teenage Tommy John, Valdivia was close to unhittable at Everett (.148/.273/.194 slashline). |
Emilio Pagan | 23 | RH | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Only Smith and Farquhar ranked better on the Spectometer at being hard to hit. |
Kevin McCoy | 22 | RH | SS-A | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | Only Smith, Farquhar and Pagan ranked better on the Spectometer at being hard to hit. |
Paul Fry | 22 | LH | SS-A | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | Two small guys from Michigan: Goon Squad Burgoon and "Small" Fry. Both can bring the strikeouts, but LH Fry may have a better shot at making it all the way. |
Leoncio Munoz | 23 | LH | SS-A | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | And, finally, the unheralded lefty who came out of the woodwork to have one of the best lines of anyone (1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.3 K/9). |
Friday, October 25, 2013
Seattle Mariners Depth Chart: it's the rickroll! Part 1 Starting Pitchers
It's the rickroll!
Part 1: Starting Pitchers.
Introduction provided at SeattleSportsInsider.com here.
2014 age | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Thumbnail commentary | ||
Felix Hernandez | 28 | RH | $20.9M | $24.9M | $25.9M | $26.9M | $26.9M | $27.9M | FA | Holding court for the rest of the decade unless something changes. |
Hisashi Iwakuma | 33 | RH | $6.5M | $7M (team option) | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | The best FA signing of the Zduriencik era, whether mandated from Japan or not. The 2015 team option would also buy out his first arb year, if I'm understanding it right. | ||
Taijuan Walker | 21 | RH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Felix and Taijuan could be FAs the same year? Don't count on it, but 2020 could be dark times. |
James Paxton | 25 | LH | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | And, yes, K-Pax will be on the same timeframe as well. |
Erasmo Ramirez | 24 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Wither e-RAM? He went the wrong direction in almost every category in 2013, but he's still ahead of the rest of the in-house options. | |
Brandon Maurer | 23 | RH | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | Well, some of us thought he might not be ready for prime time. For whatever reason, he gets hit harder than he "ought to." | |
Blake Beavan | 25 | RH | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | To the extent that anyone cares, Beavan will be arb-eligible in 2015. | ||
Hector Noesi | 27 | RH | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | See entry under Beavan, Blake. | ||
Danny Hultzen | 24 | LH | Injury | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Who knows at this point? I suppose on the positive side, he's no longer on the same timetable as Tai and Pax. And he could slide back another year, depending on how much rehab he needs in 2015. My view is that he'll still be a useful MLB pitcher, but it will be awhile before we know. |
Roenis Elias | 25 | LH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Moved up the ladder with solid results, and could be an in-house option to fill a spot. There's value in that. |
Anthony Fernandez | 24 | LH | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Arb3 | Went from ahead of Elias in 2012 to behind him in 2013, but also a potentially solid LH rotation-filler. |
Victor Sanchez | 19 | RH | HighA / AA | AA / AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Would not surprise if he skips High Desert as Taijuan did. I still would not expect him in the majors until the end of 2015, which was also the Walker timetable. |
Stephen Landazuri | 22 | RH | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | These next three would seem to be on course for Jackson in 2014. I've always been a Landazuri fan. |
Trevor Miller | 23 | RH | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | Struggled at High Desert but earned a promotion anyway. Then didn't impress much at Jackson. But still could be an option. |
Jordan Shipers | 23 | LH | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Arb2 | He's yet to put it together, but you can't rule out a lefty with good stuff. |
Dylan "Sharkie" Unsworth | 21 | RH | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Then you have a righty without great stuff but awesome command/control, and he's starting to look like the real deal. |
Tyler Pike | 20 | LH | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Yes, it's possible that Pike could move on the same timetable as Sanchez, but I think he'll end up lagging behind a bit. That ballooning BB% in 2013 is nagging at me. |
Edwin Diaz | 20 | RH | SS-A / LowA | HighA / AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Arb1 | Transformed from "project" to "prospect" overnight. But he still hasn't pitched above Pulaski. If he keeps it up, he'll catch up with Pike. |
Lars Huijer | 20 | RH | LowA | HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | The Dutch Master got himself on the chart, but he still has a long way to go. |
Luiz Gohara | 17 | LH | SS-A | LowA / HighA | AA | AAA | PreArb1 | PreArb2 | PreArb3 | Sabathia body, Japanese brain. Need we say more? Even this non-aggressive schedule has him in AAA at age 20. |
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