Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Meet the Goon Squad

Posted online by Chance Ruffin. No infringement intended.

Doc liked our mini-profile of Stephen Kohlscheen enough to devote a post of his own on it, but we feel compelled to point out the secret lurking below the surface.

Even post-"leap," Kolhscheen is only about the 4th or 5th best prospect from the Jackson bullpen.

 Let's check our work here.

A guy puts up a 2.30 ERA and 11.5 K/9 and isn't even one of the top three guys in his own bullpen?

Well, maybe so.

Consider:

Carson Smith (#31 in the picture): 1.80 ERA | 1.76 FIP | 1.00 WHIP | 3.1 BB/9 | 12.8 K/9
Dominic Leone (not in the picture): 2.25 ERA | 2.88 FIP | 1.05 WHIP | 2.5 BB/9 | 9.0 K/9
Kyle Hunter (not in the picture): 1.80 ERA | 3.33 FIP |  1.13 WHIP | 2.6 BB/9 | 7.1 K/9
Tyler Burgoon (#55 in the picture): 4.02 ERA | 3.49 FIP | 1.36 WHIP | 4.2 BB/9 | 11.4 K/9
Forrest Snow (#25 in the picture): 2.96 ERA | 3.16 FIP | 1.09 WHIP | 3.1 BB/9 | 9.2 K/9
Nick Hill (not in the picture) vs. LH hitters only: 2.84 FIP |  1.00 WHIP | 3.3 BB/9 | 9.8 K/9


And that's not even listing Jonathan Arias and his 10.4 K/9 (but 4.66 FIP) or Andrew Kittredge and his 11.2 K/9 at Jackson (which cratered when he went to Tacoma).

As it happens, Smith had the very best "Spectometer" stats in the entire organization.  I mean, 12.8 K/9 and not getting touched?

Leone faded a bit down the stretch, but he had a 28-game "zone" in the summer when he gave up only 2 runs, 18 hits, 5 walks and struck out 42 for a .159/.192/.212 slash line against.

Hunter got his own "plateau leap" writeup,  and was very tough on LH hitters.

Burgoon (the "mascot" of the Goon Squad) has never struck our fewer than one per inning.  His walk rate has crept up as he's moved up the ladder, but he's still got the stuff.

Snow made his "plateau leap" in 2011 (moving up from Clinton to Tacoma at rapid pace), only to tumble back down a plateau or two since.  But in 2013 he clearly solidified himself as a bullpen possibility.

Hill, of course, made his "plateau leap" in 2008 and was one of the system's top prospects in 2009, before major injuries and military obligations derailed him.  This year was his first "real" season since 2010 (he pitched 3.0 IP in rookie ball in 2012), and the promise he had shown earlier in his career was definitely back.

Kohlscheen in probably right in the mix with Burgoon and Snow, but below Smith, Leone and Hunter.  I'm not sure how to rank Hill, since he'll be 29 next year, but he has extenuating circumstances.

Oh ... by the way, the guys in the lower minors might be even better.






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